Core components of new energy vehicles: global trend of drive motors

As the penetration rate of global automobile electrification continues to increase, the drive motor industry will usher in a rapid expansion of the overall scale. In this process, third-party motor manufacturers with scale effects and technological advantages will have the opportunity to rapidly expand their market share and reap substantial growth in performance.

Global drive motor market trends

According to estimates, with the rapid advancement of global vehicle electrification, the new energy vehicle motor system market will expand rapidly, and the market size is expected to grow from $2.3 billion in 2015 to $31.8 billion in 2030.

The motor system of new energy vehicles mainly includes two parts: electric motor and inverter. Although these two parts, like most other auto parts, have been facing price reduction pressure for a long time, due to the increase in the total number of new energy vehicles, the industry as a whole still has a large room for growth. We expect that the average annual growth rate of the market size will be around 18%-20% by 2030.

In terms of system unit price, the overall development of motor systems in the direction of high power also brings about an increase in assembly prices.

According to estimates, under neutral assumptions, electric vehicle sales will reach 20 million units in 2030, accounting for approximately 16%-18% of total passenger vehicle sales that year. However, if we put it into an optimistic scenario, that is, under the conditions of sharp decline in battery prices and stricter environmental protection policies, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales is likely to increase significantly. We expect that under optimistic scenarios, the total annual sales of new energy vehicles may reach the level of 30 million units, accounting for approximately 25%-27% of the year's car sales.

It is estimated that the power demand of single-motor hybrid vehicles is about 30kw, that of dual-motor plug-in hybrids is about 50-100kw, and that of pure electric vehicles is about 200kw.

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Electric motor market situation

We predict that the average annual sales growth rate of electric motors will reach 18% by 2030, and the overall industry sales will reach $19.5 billion by 2030, an expansion of nearly 17 times compared with the level of $1.2 billion in 2015.

Sales of electric motors are expected to increase from 3.6 million in 2015 to 49 million in 2030. At the same time, the number of bicycle motors is expected to decline, from 1.8 to 1.4, mainly due to the increase in the sales proportion of pure electric vehicles with a single motor.

However, we expect that the unit price of electric motors will further increase, from the current $350 to $380, mainly driven by the wider application of high-priced high-power motors.

In the long-term development process of the motor industry, the rise of third-party suppliers will be the general trend. If we observe the current industrial chain situation of the Japanese automobile industry, it is not difficult to find that the top three companies that occupy the leading position are all inclined to self-powered motor products. This is not only related to the traditional genes of Japanese manufacturing companies, but also related to the stage of industry development.

If we compare the development history of the PC and mobile phone industries, it is not difficult to find that in the early days, these two industries were highly integrated with upstream and downstream production.